Coffee is the world's second most important commodity after oil – but climate change poses a massive threat to its future. Specialty coffee, which thrives under precise climatic conditions, is particularly vulnerable to changes. In this article, we take a detailed look at the challenges facing coffee farmers worldwide and outline approaches to how plantations can adapt.

Temperature rise & changes in precipitation

Arabica coffee grows best at temperatures between 18–22 °C. Even slight deviations have a negative impact on flowering, fruit development, and bean quality.

Consequences of rising temperatures:

• More frequent droughts → lower yields

• Irregular rainy seasons → uneven flowering and difficult harvest planning

• Shift in cultivation zones: low-lying regions lose their suitability, highland regions gain importance

Ethiopia in particular, the genetic cradle of Arabica coffee, could lose up to 60% of its cultivated land by 2050, according to studies.

Pest and disease pressure

Warmer temperatures promote the spread of pests and fungi:

• Coffee rust (Hemileia vastatrix): The fungus responsible for the devastating “Roya” epidemic in Central America in 2012–2014 spreads more rapidly as temperatures rise.

• Coffee berry borer: Benefits from higher temperatures and can now survive at altitudes above 1,500 m.

This leads to higher production costs and makes organic farming particularly difficult, as chemicals are not permitted in this area.

Water scarcity & resource pressure

Coffee processing—especially the washed process—requires enormous amounts of water. Droughts, which occur frequently in Brazil and Central America, exacerbate competition for water between agriculture, the population, and industry. For example, some regions in Colombia are already considering drip irrigation and the reuse of process water to reduce water consumption.

Threat to biodiversity and ecosystems

Many specialty coffees are traditionally shade-grown, which stabilizes biodiversity and the microclimate. However, climate stress is forcing some producers to adopt monocultures, which are more productive in the short term but more vulnerable to pests in the long term. In addition, the number of natural pollinators is declining—a problem, as studies show that up to 25% of coffee production depends directly on wild bees.

Socio-economic impacts

About 70% of the world's coffee comes from smallholder farmers. Many have little capital to invest in irrigation systems, new varieties, or pest control. The consequences are serious:

• Income losses due to crop failures

• Emigration of young generations from rural areas

• Increasing social instability in growing areas

One example is Honduras, which not only suffered economic setbacks after the Roya crisis but also saw increased migration towards the USA.

Plantation adaptation strategies

Despite the challenges, coffee farmers and researchers are developing innovative solutions. Agroforestry with shade trees regulates the microclimate, improves soil quality, and also provides timber or fruit. New varieties and hybrids such as Starmaya and Centroamericano are more resistant to rust and higher temperatures . In water management, many are also relying on drip irrigation and recycling to reduce consumption. Furthermore, farmers are diversifying their income sources by combining coffee with cocoa, honey, or tourism. Another approach is the use of modern technologies: weather apps, AI-supported forecasts, and drones help with pest monitoring and harvest planning.

Consumer role

Consumers can also exert influence. Buying sustainable specialty coffee supports producers who use climate-resilient farming methods. Labels like the Rainforest Alliance or Direct Trade provide initial guidance, but critical examination of certifications is also important – not every label delivers on its promises. Quote from the NGO Climate Institute: "Without drastic adaptation measures, coffee could become a luxury product that only a few can afford by 2050." (Climate Institute Report: https://climate.org/coffee-and-climate-change/ )

And now?

Climate change poses enormous challenges to global coffee production – from rising temperatures to pest pressure and social problems. But there is also hope: Through innovation, sustainable farming methods, and conscious consumption, the future of coffee can be secured. For coffee lovers, this means that their daily espresso is not just a pleasure, but also a reflection of global challenges – and an opportunity to be part of the solution.